What Trump’s own words tell us about what a White House win could mean for Ukraine
Trump recently blamed Zelenskyy for allowing the war to start even though it was Russia who invaded.
Former President Donald Trump talks a lot about Russia’s war in Ukraine, often making bold assertions about what he would do if he again won the White House.
He’s said he wants the conflict to end but he’s offered mixed views on how he would resolve it and continued US support.
Mick Ryan, a retired major general and a prominent Ukraine war watcher, said many options are on the table.
“That’s the great problem trying to anticipate what a Trump administration might do because there’s such a wide variety of things that could happen,” he told B-17.
Trump said he’d negotiate an end to the conflict
Ukraine has repeatedly said Russia must leave occupied Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, as part of a peace deal.
The Republican nominee has touted his “very good relationship” with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He has said the war wouldn’t have happened under his watch and has suggested that he could broker a deal between Kyiv and Moscow to end the conflict.
“I think it’s in the US’ best interest to get this war finished and just get it done. All right. Negotiate a deal,” he said during the presidential debate in September.
He said the conflict was “dying to be settled” and that he could resolve it even before taking office. “What I’ll do is I’ll speak to one, I’ll speak to the other, and I’ll get them together,” he said. Trump has previously said he could end the conflict in less than 24 hours.
“I’ll get it done. I’ll get it negotiated, I’ll get out. We gotta get out,” he told a crowd in Georgia last month.
Conditions on the battlefield are worsening for Ukraine as Russia intensifies attacks ahead of muddy season and winter.
Trump has put a lot of emphasis on dealmaking, telling supporters in North Carolina in late September that “any deal — the worst deal — would’ve been better than what we have now” and saying if Ukraine had “given up a little bit,” the war would already be over.
The US has been involved in brokering ceasefires and peace agreements, but it’s no easy task. Battlefield conditions influence negotiations, and concessions bring warring parties to the table.
“Brokering any kind of settlement is going to be extremely difficult because the negotiating positions and the objectives of the sides are fundamentally different,” said Seth Jones, director of the International Security Program and Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Trump seems critical of US aid to Ukraine
Russia’s invasion into Ukraine sparked a massive migrant crisis and has ravaged the country.
A real possibility under a second Trump administration is that US support to Ukraine decreases or ends.
The former President has regularly criticized the Biden administration for sending billions of dollars in security aid to Kyiv, calling Zelenskyy in a recent podcast interview “one of the greatest salesmen I’ve ever seen.”
“Who else got that kind of money in history? There’s never been,” he said. “That doesn’t mean I don’t want to help him because I feel very badly for those people. But he should never have let that war start. That war’s a loser.”
Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, has been vocal against US support for Ukraine. He’s said he doesn’t care what happens “one way or another.”
US aid for Ukraine faced severe opposition in Congress earlier this year.
Congressional Republicans blocked the passage of Ukraine aid for months starting late last year and continuing into this year, and that impasse left Ukraine in a bind until a smaller aid package could be passed months later.
That hold-up, in which Trump was involved, reflected a growing sentiment among some Republicans troubled by US aid to Ukraine. It showed future American support isn’t guaranteed and that any collapse in US aid has a direct impact on Ukraine’s ability to fight and win.
The November down-ballot elections will also have a large impact, regardless of who ultimately wins the White House. New members of Congress will impact whether American aid continues.
Trump could continue aid but with conditions
Republican voters are split on how much aid the US should be giving to Ukraine.
It’s also possible Trump decides to continue aid — with conditions — or even increase support for Ukraine if he wins the election. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal last week, Trump said he previously threatened the Russian president over Ukraine.
“Vladimir, if you go after Ukraine, I am going to hit you so hard, you’re not even going to believe it. I’m going to hit you right in the middle of fricking Moscow,” Trump said he told Putin. “We’re friends. I don’t want to do it, but I have no choice.”
But Trump has also noted Russia’s willingness to fight and nuclear capabilities.
Ukraine has warned that if it falls to Russia, other NATO countries will be next.
“He’s got a thing that other people don’t have. He’s got nuclear weapons. They don’t ever talk about that. He’s got nuclear weapons,” Trump said earlier this month.
The former president has suggested that American aid to Ukraine could continue under a kind of lend-lease program, with an expectation that the Ukrainians pay back the money given.
Putin has relied on a nuclear saber-rattling strategy to give the US and its allies pause about further supporting Ukraine.
Trump hasn’t said whether he wants Ukraine to win. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, hasn’t either, though she has signaled a willingness to continue support for Ukraine. During the debate, Harris said Putin is a “a dictator who would eat” Trump “for lunch.” She also said that “if Donald Trump were president, Putin would be sitting in Kyiv right now.”
And Ukraine isn’t the sole concern with a Trump win. He has bashed NATO allies for not contributing their fair share, questioned US involvement, and suggested earlier this year that he would let Russia do “whatever the hell” it wants to allies not paying enough.
Neither Trump nor Harris said they wanted Ukraine to win the war during the September debate.
“Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security,” former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said in response to Trump’s comments, “including that of the US.”
Ukraine has made similar points, highlighting that it is fighting a war so the West doesn’t have to and thus contributing to its security.
The election comes as Ukraine holds territory inside Russia and as the Russians continue to advance in Ukraine. Both sides are pushing their defense industrial bases to churn out weapons while also turning to others for support. Winter is on its way, though, and that could slow combat activity.
