Why housing affordability could be a key issue for swing state voters in November, according to Redfin

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Swing states have seen a huge rise in rent prices since the 2020 election — a fact that will likely make housing affordability a key issue in this year’s presidential race, Redfin said.

The report says median asking rents in swing states have shot up almost 24% since 2020, with especially big increases in key states like Michigan.

As rent prices have climbed, housing affordability remains stretched.

Typical swing state renter households earn $50,267 a year, but to be able to afford a median-priced apartment that costs no more than 30% of that income, they would need to make $60,633, the report says.

That’s a $10,365 difference, meaning renters in swing states earn 17% less than they need to afford the typical apartment.

That deficit actually marks a slight improvement compared to the last election, when swing state renters faced a 21% difference in income and affordable rent.

The slightly improved affordability stems from gains in incomes, which have risen faster than rent prices.

Yet, the income and rent discrepancy remains sizeable, the study says. Given that the difference between income and median rent peaked at 31.4% in 2021 following the last election, and given that younger renters have since entered the market for the first time, housing affordability is likely to be an issue at the top of mind for many voters in the states likely to decide the election.

“While the economy has been improving on paper, that’s not what it feels like for a lot of US families. Many renters—especially young people—still feel the rent is too damn high,” Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said.

The study looked at voters in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina — states where the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is particularly close.

In Arizona, rental affordability has improved the most with an almost 10% increase in affordability, while in Michigan, affordability has fallen almost 5%.

The study says asking rents in Michigan have jumped over 12% in just the last year as the Midwest faces high demand and less active home building than other regions.

Pennsylvania, meanwhile, faces a nearly 30% difference between median renter income and asking rent. Pennsylvania is a critical state, with Harris and Trump nearly tied in the latest polls.

“America’s swing state voters will decide the outcome of the next presidential election based on the candidates’ plans for tackling key issues including the housing affordability crisis,” Fairweather said.

The situation is also tough for prospective buyers in these states.

In July, Redfin found the median monthly housing payment in swing states has nearly doubled in the last four years, rising by 92% to reach a record high of $2,161.

That rise means people earning the median swing-state income are able to afford just one-third of homes for sale, down from roughly two-thirds in 2020.