Why the cost of Thanksgiving dinner shows the weird state of inflation

The average price of Thanksgiving dinner fell for the second year in a row, but prices are still higher than 2019.

The cost of a traditional Thanksgiving dinner has fallen for the second year in a row. However, shopping for the holiday might not feel cheaper.

A Thanksgiving meal for 10 people will cost $58.08 on average this year, according to a survey of grocery store prices from the American Farm Bureau Federation. That’s 5% less than in 2023, the Federation said.

The basket is still 19% more expensive than it was in 2019, the group found. While inflation has slowed this year, prices for many products, including several grocery essentials, remain higher than they were a few years ago. At the start of 2024, food took up the greatest share of shoppers’ budgets that it had since the early 1990s.

“We are seeing modest improvements in the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for a second year, but America’s families, including farm families, are still being hurt by high inflation,” Zippy Duvall, the Federation’s President, said in a statement.

The nonprofit’s annual survey, which it has fielded since 1986, looks at a basket of foods that US shoppers typically buy for Thanksgiving, including stuffing and pumpkin pie filling. The survey drew on supermarket prices in all 50 states and Puerto Rico between November 1 and November 7, the Federation said.

Prices for many ingredients fell, including frozen peas, sweet potatoes, and pie crusts. Others, such as fresh cranberries and dinner rolls, were higher compared to 2023.

The price of turkey fell 6% over last year, the Federation’s survey found. While US turkey farms have lost birds to bird flu this year, Americans are also eating less turkey.

“The American turkey flock is the smallest it’s been since 1985 because of avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen, resulting in lower prices at the grocery store for families planning a holiday meal,” Federation Economist Bernt Nelson said.

This year, some retailers are selling bundles of Thanksgiving meal items while advertising them as affordable. Walmart is selling a 29-item package that it says feeds eight people for less than $55 — “an even lower price than last year,” the big box store said last month.

Discount grocer Aldi is selling a meal for 10 people that it says retails for under $47 — less than the same group of items cost in 2019, as the chain said in October.

Inflation was a key issue in this year’s US presidential election — as well as other elections around the world where voters rejected incumbent candidates and parties in part due to consumer prices that have remained high since the pandemic.

However, economists have said that some of President-elect Donald Trump’s policy proposals, including lower taxes, tariffs on certain imports, and the mass deportation of immigrants, could raise inflation.

Retailers from Walmart to AutoZone have already said they would raise prices if Trump’s administration implements tariffs.