Xi was unusually frank in spelling out China’s 4 ‘red lines’ for the US, a clear warning for Trump’s China hawks

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has his eye on Trump 2.0.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping is gearing up for Trump 2.0 with some ground rules for the administration’s China hawks.

Last weekend, Xi met US President Joe Biden at the 31st APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Lima, Peru. He told Washington not to cross “four red lines” — which analysts say is a clear message for the incoming Trump administration.

The four hot-button issues are Taiwan, democracy and human rights, China’s path and system, and the country’s rights to development.

“These are the most important guardrails and safety nets for China-US relations,” Xi said, according to a readout from the Chinese foreign ministry.

Xi’s explicit message is notable because it appears to be the first time these “red lines” were issued at the presidential level, said Igor Khrestin, a managing director of global policy at the George W. Bush Institute, a think tank.

“This is an attempt to ‘set the floor’ for US-China relations, in light of the uncertainly surrounding the second Trump Administration,” Khrestin told B-17.

To be sure, it’s not the first time Beijing has mentioned “red lines” in diplomatic settings and the four no-go zones are consistent with China’s position on the issues. Foreign Minister Wang Yi has warned about not crossing Beijing’s “red lines” in the past.

The remarks show Beijing is paying close attention to the nomination of China hawks in Trump’s administration, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio — who has been sanctioned by Beijing — to the position of Secretary of State.

Xi’s language raised some eyebrows, with analysts calling it “harsh” and deeming China’s foreign ministry readout “strikingly negative” in some sections.

As Jersey Lee, an international affairs analyst, wrote on the think tank Lowy Institute’s website on Tuesday, Xi’s sentence that the US “always says one thing but does another, it will be detrimental to its own image, and undermine trust between China and the United States,” is “surprisingly frank.”

Xi named Taiwan President William Lai

Of the four “red lines,” Taiwan is the most sensitive issue between the two countries, as Xi has repeatedly said over the years.

Beijing claims Taiwan as its territory and has said recently that it will never commit to renouncing the use of force over the island. The area is strategically important to the US as a leader in semiconductor production and as a key security hub.

The sensitivity over Taiwan is even more apparent because last weekend was also the first time that Xi reportedly called Taiwanese president William Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party — whom Beijing branded as a separatist — by name. Chinese leaders rarely mention Taiwanese leaders by name in public.

“If the US side cares about maintaining peace across the Taiwan Strait, it is crucial that it sees clearly the true nature of Lai Ching-te and the DPP authorities in seeking ‘Taiwan independence,’ handles the Taiwan question with extra prudence, unequivocally opposes ‘Taiwan independence,’ and supports China’s peaceful reunification,” according to Chinese ministry readout.

However, the White House’s readout of the same meeting did not mention Lai. That prompted Tsai Ming-yen, the director of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, to question if China’s state media and its foreign ministry were using cognitive warfare tactics.

Rockier times ahead of US and China

In 2018, Trump said he had an “incredible relationship” with Xi. But things could change dramatically with the President-elect calling for 60% tariffs.

Beijing seems to prefer a more conciliatory approach with Trump’s new team in the short term to avoid dramatic developments, Khrestin said.

“Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Xi Jinping has consolidated in his view that the United States and its allies have become intractable impediments to China’s rightful rise as the dominant global power,” Khrestin said.

Trump 2.0 doesn’t change that long-term calculus, and the US-China relationship is likely to worsen in the long run because Beijing is inflexible in its “red lines,” he added.