Are home prices in your state overvalued or undervalued? Here’s where all 50 states stand, according to market research firm Moody’s.

  • Moody’s economist Matthew Walsh says US home prices are 15.7% above their fundamental value.
  • Some of the most overvalued states include Idaho, Tennessee, and North Carolina.
  • Some of the most undervalued are Maryland, California, and New York.

According to Moody’s economist Matthew Walsh, national home prices in the United States are slightly overvalued.

According to the model of the renowned market research firm, national median prices are currently 15.7% higher than their fundamental value, leading Walsh to believe they will fall another 4-4.5% in the coming months. The model takes into account factors such as construction costs, household formation rates, and where home prices stand in relation to median incomes. Nationally, homes are the least affordable relative to income in four decades, according to Walsh.

However, as the saying goes, all real estate is local, and certain areas of the country are more overpriced than others. We’ve listed where each state — plus Washington, DC — stood in the second quarter of 2023, according to Moody’s model. We’ve also included their median home prices as of September, based on Redfin data.

Walsh believes that home prices in any state that exceed their fundamental value by more than 10% are “overvalued.” The states are listed in decreasing order of overvaluation.

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