Kurtenbach: The 49ers should trade Trey Lance. It’s what’s best for the player and team
San Francisco 49ers: Trey Lance struggled in the Niners’ first preseason game. With two other capable backup quarterbacks, what does San Francisco gain from keeping him on the roster?
The 49ers expected to pick the franchise’s future when they traded three first-round NFL Draft picks to move up and select quarterback Trey Lance No. 3 overall in the spring of 2021.
Three years later, he’s the No. 3 quarterback in San Francisco.
That could be a generous interpretation.
So, what keeps him on the team?
This preseason is Lance’s chance to prove that he still has a future with the Niners, but his performance against the Raiders on Sunday makes it difficult to imagine what that future might be.
The 49ers believe they have found their franchise quarterback in Brock Purdy.
In Sam Darnold and Brandon Allen, the Niners believe they have capable, veteran backups. In Las Vegas, both looked good.
What does Lance bring to the 49ers?
In his third NFL season, he remains a raw and perplexing prospect.
That’s why the 49ers should accept any draft pick in exchange for Lance today.
Yes, the Niners ran out of quarterbacks last season, but the roughly $9 million in salary-cap savings provided by trading Lance over the next two seasons could be put to better use than a super-depth, prospect quarterback.
It’s a situation that neither the 49ers nor Lance benefit from.
Lance went 10-for-15 for 112 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, but the real story was four sacks, three 3-and-outs to start the game, and an interception that bounced out of the hands of the defenders and became a Niners touchdown. There were moments of optimism, but they were overshadowed by the negatives.
Perhaps the game was too fast for the inexperienced quarterback. Perhaps a nervous Lance was overly cautious. Both of these things could be true at the same time. Lance’s performance on Sunday was undeniably difficult to watch.
There will always be reasons. Injuries have severely limited his playing time in his first two seasons. And, yes, he was playing Sunday behind a second-string offensive line.
But the truth is that Lance is competing for a backup position, and on Sunday, he was pitted against the opposing team’s backups. You can’t grade him on a curve, and you can’t pretend that a preseason game isn’t important.
Purdy would not be on this team if the preseason didn’t matter. His preseason performances last year convinced the Niners to release veteran backup Nate Sudfeld, costing the team millions of dollars. Last preseason, Purdy was unmistakable. He compelled the Niners’ hand.
Lance will do the same this year unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the next preseason game, which is Saturday against the Broncos in Santa Clara.
“I have to improve. “It’s not on those guys,” Lance said of his teammates on KPIX-TV on Sunday. “They did an excellent job and were competing for our butts.
“There’s pressure in these games,” Shanahan said after the loss on Sunday.
There is, indeed.
And the stakes are even higher this season.
Today is the Niners’ Super Bowl window, and no one knows how long these windows last. Shanahan’s roster should include 53 players capable of assisting them in winning right now. The preseason is a great time to figure out who some of those players are.
I doubt the Niners coach would start Darnold and Allen over Lance today in a regular-season (or, God forbid, a playoff) game.
The Niners can’t let Lance go because it would cost them money under the salary cap. However, it appears absurd to cut Allen instead of him.
So, other than creating a perfect example of the sunk-cost fallacy, what are we doing here?
Take the pick, shake the kid’s hand, and wish him the best of luck on his next stop. He certainly didn’t get any here.
Is Lance’s NFL career off to a bad start? Absolutely.
While many will label Lance a “bust” in the coming days, that doesn’t seem fair given that he has only started four NFL games.
Having said that, no one, not even the No. 3 overall pick, is entitled to anything in the NFL. This is especially true when dealing with a title contender.
Do you still not believe me? Ask Sam Darnold, the third overall pick in 2018, who is now on his third NFL team.
Ask defensive end Clelin Ferrell, who was the Raiders’ No. 4 overall pick in 2019, but just signed a deal with the Niners that guarantees him only $580,000 this season.
The only thing that matters in this league is performance, and the Niners told Lance as much when they signed Darnold and Allen. He dug himself a deeper hole on Sunday. I doubt he’ll be able to get out of it.
Is this what the Niners want to concentrate on heading into this crucial season?
Lance is talented enough to play in this league. And, while I don’t know him off the field, no one in Santa Clara has said anything negative about him. It wouldn’t surprise me if he eventually had a successful NFL career as a starting quarterback, similar to Ryan Tannehill or Geno Smith.
However, if that success is to come, it will be for a different team.
Everyone will be happier if the Niners can make that move as soon as possible.